The Stone Theater – sitting in the heart of the show floor at StonExpo – provided an arena for a plethora of education during the three-day event, which was held from February 1 to 3, 2022 at the Mandalay Bay Convention Center in Las Vegas, NV. Among the diverse range of sessions that took place was the “Economic Forecast for the Countertop Industry,” which was presented by Jon Lancto of Big Fish Consulting and Klint Olsen of GranQuartz.
“There is not going to be a lot of recession in the next three years,” said Lancto. “In the U.S., there are about 360 million people and we create about one million new households every year. People need new houses.”
According to Lancto, during past years of recession, only about a maximum of 750,000 homes were built in each of those years. As a result, there are more homes needed today because the market is still catching up.
Olsen explained that during the next two years there will be a focus on repair and remodel. “There’s major tailwinds going on in 2022 and 2023,” he said. “We are way above where we were in 2006 and 2007. Single-family construction is up. We are outpacing where we thought we’d be.”
Additionally, it was pointed out that “big project remodels” (more than $8,500) will be on the rise in 2022. “We are in a 16- to 20-year cycle,” said Olsen. He explained that there was a boom of new houses built in the early 2000s, which are now ready for remodels. “This is the time to capitalize,” he told attendees. “There is growth coming.”
And while growth is on the upswing in the upcoming years, it is necessary to not get too relaxed.
Lancto emphasized to the audience the importance of being prepared. “There’s always that chance of the ‘black swan’ flying towards us that we don’t know about,” he said. “We had COVID, and we recovered. And we continue to recover. But those things are always out there. We don’t know which one is coming down the pipeline, but there probably is going to be something. Stick with the course. Don’t panic. The best time to buy equipment is in a recession because then you are in a position to come out of it knowing how to run that equipment and knowing that you have the capacity to increase on the rebound. We don’t have to worry about that right now, but that could be the case who knows when.”
“To Jon’s point, this is the time to capitalize and to take advantage,” said Olsen. “There’s growth coming and we are going to be pushing forward.”